Friday, November 20, 2009

Newcastle Light Rail by 2100

The Bellevue Reporter recently unveiled yet another routing proposal for Sound Transit’s Eastside Link. The plan is to use the former BNSF corridor from I-90 and then to SE 8th Street. This takes it over that new holding pond. It’s called the “Vision Line.”

The rails will run along the west side of I-405 and then fly over the freeway to the east just south of NE 8th Street. Two elements are that it avoids Surrey Downs (really loud protesters) and avoids a tunnel. The headline says it avoids the downtown core. The Vision Line is about avoidance.

Curious folks can try to check Bellevuereporter.com or try this link: http://www.pnwlocalnews.com/east_king/bel/news/70249167.html
Couple of interesting pictures out there.

They don’t plan to begin construction until 2014 and finish around 2020. The implications for Newcastle are obvious: more delay. Instead of turning south at the I-90 and I-405 junction all the plans show it turning north.

This is probably why Sound Transit elected to install a temporary “Transit Center” in downtown Newcastle. They know everyone there will be retired before they ever make plans to run a line to Lake Boren. The new transit center will allow everyone to take busses to work for the next 30 to 50 years.

And this brings up an interesting point. 30 to 50 years from now public transportation will have to be a majority component of local travel. Much as we hate the thought of leaving the familiar heap behind we’ll just have to get used to it. I’m ahead of the curve because I’ve already retired. Just the concept of 30 to 50 years of work makes me want to go take a nap.

Us futurists (very few can see into the future as well as I can, so pay attention) can see a time when cars will be more like electric roller skates. I’d rather take the bus. As time goes on everyone the world over will continue to mandate higher gas mileage requirements. Materials will get lighter and comfort will be eliminated. So make sure you keep your current vehicle well maintained so it’ll be around for the next “Cash for Clunkers” trade down.

Another feature of the future will be charges for miles driven rather than gas tax. Never mind that the massive dump trucks rumbling to and from Maple Valley are the real road killers, regular drivers will be paying for repairs. And every lane will have a price displayed overhead. If you don’t have a transponder in your car that’s directly linked to your bank you’ll have to pay the maximum. Kind of like losing your parking stub at the airport parking garage. Not pretty.

OK, this is interesting but here’s the problem: if we fail to install a robust public transit system we’ll have demand way over capacity. When hundreds of thousands of suburban job holders want to get to work and WANT to leave the electric shopping cart behind there won’t be enough seats unless plans are made now.

Wait, here’s another cog in that malfunctioning gearbox: working from home. This gets better every day. High speed internet and cell phone networks combined with enormously capable hardware make it possible to avoid the office all the time. I certainly had days when I would have preferred to avoid the office.

Some people don’t even have a desk at work; they only go in for face to face meetings and to catch up on office gossip. Some people don’t even live in the same state as their business location.

Managers are sometimes not real pleased with the prospect of having most of their employees keeping track of their own time and productivity. So here’s my question: if you’re so worried that I won’t be productive when I’m at home why do you insist on wasting so much of my time when I’m at work? Answer me that you pointy haired nimrod!

Umm, we were talking about the light rail route through Bellevue weren’t we? Well in another prediction of the future I think it’ll take years to reach a resolution of this deal. We don’t even know for sure if the rails will ever be allowed on I-90. Also, the video showing a proposal for the new SR 520 Bridge clearly depicts pontoons that could be adapted to carry rails. I don’t know if that was intended but that’s the way I saw it.

Given the posturing and proposing that’s going on I wouldn’t be surprised if they eventually decide to build a light rail line from the Kent Valley to Woodinville on the east side of Lake Washington with no connection to Seattle. I think that’s about what the “Use the BNSF corridor” people were saying. Maybe they were right after all.

Al

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