Now let’s look into the future. Time Magazine (Feb 21, 2011) has a story about a group of people who developed a theory they call “Singularity.” The definition is “the moment when technological change becomes so rapid and profound; it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history.” Basically the time when computers are smarter than us.
I think its Moore’s Law that says the number of transistors that can be inexpensively placed on a circuit board doubles every two years. As we develop faster and faster processors and smaller memory chips the pace of change is also getting faster.
What the singularity guys are saying is that at some point not too far away (they mention 2045) computing power will surpass that of all human brains. At my house that was around 1994. OK, my wife is still much smarter than computers, but not me.
Another near magical development in the fabric of development (see, I told you I wasn’t very smart) is telecommuting. Sort of a high tech way to phone it in. This also is evolving. As internet speeds increase and more data can travel over the networks we can get more and more realistic as a fake presence. Right now we can sit in front of a computer in any location (with fast broadband) and talk to another person as if you’re in the same room. That person’s image is on your screen and your image is on their screen. You both speak in normal tones and you may forget you’re 3000 miles apart.
Companies are making portable robots whose function is to go to meetings for you. One is from a company called vgo Communications. It has a camera and a monitor on top and wheels, battery, and other works on the floor. It can move around. If you and another person each have one of those you just sit in front of it and have a discussion. Try to comb that mop before you make the connection.
Since it wheels around it can attend meetings almost like a person. Better, actually, because it’ll be on time. It can roll down the hall to another room, ride the elevator, take a lunch break, or several can gather in the broom closet and plot against the humans.
The name for this modern meeting attendance is “telepresence.” The robot carries on in meetings just as if you are there in person. For added fun you can make a video of yourself looking interested and then just play it in a loop so the folks in the meeting can’t see you making funny faces. If the people in the meeting don’t want the person 3000 miles away to see a stupid pie chart they just throw a towel over the robot.
Telepresence technology is a substitute to travel. As I said there are several companies making telepresence devices. They’re working very hard to simulate actually being there. They have conference rooms that are duplicated in all the locations with people who work together. The room has a round table that’s actually only half a table. The other half is a segmented video screen. When the meeting is going on people at the tables in many locations have the visual illusion they are all at the same table.
OK, now combine this telepresence technology and its evolution with the idea if Singularity and what have you got? That’s right! Nobody goes anywhere. We all have a camera mounted on a harness that hovers a few feet in front of our faces and someplace below that we have a screen. Since everyone has this we can virtually visit anyone at any time. There may be a few issues with the concept. If computers are so smart let them work out the issues. Why should I waste energy thinking when pretty soon that can be done for me?
The next step is even more illogical: humans become robots. The theory is that as artificial intelligence and computing power reach that Singularity thing we humans won’t be any smarter or better looking than we are today. In fact some of us may even look a little older. But if you want to continue living beyond the capability of your human body you just merge with a robot. Your body is no longer the vessel that carries you around. That Segway you bought becomes obsolete because your new robot body is even cooler.
Besides robots don’t eat anything, don’t need air or water, and would have a programmable sleep mode. All kinds of benefits. Here’s one to think about: space travel. First you get a bunch of people who have major curiosity about space. You convince them it would be a good idea to merge with robots and abandon those bodies that take so much maintenance. Load the robot/humans on a space ship and tell them to have a good rest. A few hundred light years away they arrive at a different planet that’s still inhabited by dinosaurs.
Or maybe we’ve been visited by robot beings from another planet and don’t even know it. Maybe they reached the Singularity point millions of years ago and their whole population eventually merged with robots until there weren’t any live beings left. Then their super brains figured out that their planet was on its last legs and they lit out in all directions to find new places to live. Sound familiar? Anyone have Kryptonite?
They wouldn’t need to carry food, water, air, or anything else but an propulsion energy source. Maybe some of those robots landed here. Think about it. Maybe you have a better explanation for the pyramids. (Hint; they weren’t built by Hebrew slaves)
One of the more timely benefits of the evolving computing power and telepresence is a reduction in our need to make arduous journeys. Lots of us still want to go on vacations and visit relatives and have fun. That’s just fine, go and have a good time. But who wants to fly overnight to Chicago for a 7 AM business meeting and fly back to the office for a 1 PM meeting with some dweeb who doesn’t show up because he’s flying to Dallas for a meeting that you should also attend? Everyone gets a good night’s sleep and then connects via telepresence and takes care of business.
Who needs high speed rail when we can have light speed virtual images? Just think, in 1910 cities had a spider web of streetcar tracks. 100 years later we’re spending billions to replace those tracks that we spent so much tearing up. I think 100 years from now we’ll again be without rails in our cities. Write this in your calendar and check on it in 100 years. Your robot will be amazed that I was right.
Oh, and just in case: keep your electrical outlets covered.
Al
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